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ANALYSIS

Decades of defiance: why Khamenei still believes time is on his side

Decades of defiance: why Khamenei still believes time is on his side

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei blocked any potential signal of compromise before President Masoud Pezeshkian even landed in New York—a move some saw as a reckless gamble but in fact a calculated strategy rooted in decades of survival.

Blame over bargain: why no one expected talks to halt Iran sanctions

Blame over bargain: why no one expected talks to halt Iran sanctions

On the eve of the return of UN sanctions against Iran, all sides insist the doors of diplomacy remain open, but the table beyond those doors looks less like one for negotiation than for autopsy—an exercise in assigning blame for a failure long deemed inevitable.

Iran's economy shrank even before UN sanctions hit

Iran’s economy has slipped into its first contraction in more than four years and now faces mounting debt and record capital flight, official data show, days before UN sanctions are due to return.

Khamenei comes up short in rhetorical duel with Trump

Seven years after Donald Trump quit the nuclear deal, his duel with Ali Khamenei looks lopsided: the US president spoke from New York with renewed leverage, while Iran’s leader replied in taped defiance that evinced more strain than authority.

Tehran’s high-tech oil vision clouded by old problems

Tehran’s high-tech oil vision clouded by old problems

Iran's push to modernize its oil industry through artificial intelligence and advanced drilling techniques faces daunting old obstacles from restricted access to technology to mounting financial constraints which have dogged exports for years.

History repeating itself? Khamenei risks another 'poison chalice' moment

History repeating itself? Khamenei risks another 'poison chalice' moment

In Tehran today, debate over Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s hardline stance on nuclear negotiations carries an unmistakable echo of the end of Iran’s eight-year war with Iraq in 1988.

Gas-rich but power-poor: Iran risks 'terrifying' shortfall by 2040

Gas-rich but power-poor: Iran risks 'terrifying' shortfall by 2040

Iran’s gas deficit will double in the next 15 years, reaching “terrifying” heights, a senior advisor to the president has warned.

Unfinished yet irreversible: Iran's Woman, Life, Freedom three years on

Unfinished yet irreversible: Iran's Woman, Life, Freedom three years on

Three years after the killing of Mahsa "Jina" Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police, and in the shadow of the Islamic Republic’s recent 12-day war with Israel, the outlines of a durable social transformation are clear.

Accountability for Iran hangs on UN mission’s future

Accountability for Iran hangs on UN mission’s future

The United Nations fact-finding mission on Iran, created after mass protests were crushed in 2022, has emerged as a rare instrument of accountability whose survival now rests on the political and financial will of the international community.

Israeli strike in Qatar puts normalization on ice, leaves Iran in suspense

Israeli strike in Qatar puts normalization on ice, leaves Iran in suspense

More than any other act in the post-October 7, 2023 world, the Israeli airstrike on a busy residential neighborhood of Doha on Tuesday has the potential to upend prevailing assumptions on Persian Gulf security.

Why Iran’s hopes for Chinese and Russian investment don’t add up

Why Iran’s hopes for Chinese and Russian investment don’t add up

Tehran’s optimism about fresh Chinese and Russian investment may be more aspirational than realistic.

Israel's Qatar strikes aim to intimidate Iran but unsettle Arab states

Israel's Qatar strikes aim to intimidate Iran but unsettle Arab states

Tuesday’s strike on the leadership of the Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas in Doha aims to intimidate Tehran but also sows unease among Arab states, Israeli and American experts told Iran International.

Why Iran's rulers fear change more than war

Why Iran's rulers fear change more than war

Facing a grinding crisis and mounting calls at home to change course before disaster strikes, Iran’s rulers still speak in a language that suggests they prefer the risks of war to the uncertainties of reform.

Calls for Larijani to lead nuclear talks may signal push for rethink

Calls for Larijani to lead nuclear talks may signal push for rethink

A proposal to return control of Iran’s nuclear negotiations to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has highlighted the growing influence of its new chief, Ali Larijani—and a potential readjustment of Tehran’s negotiation strategy as UN sanctions loom.

Sanctions, strikes, or stalemate: Iran’s perilous September

Sanctions, strikes, or stalemate: Iran’s perilous September

Tehran risks sliding back into comprehensive multilateral isolation by the end of September, with the deadline for the return of UN sanctions fast approaching and Washington mulling restrictions on Iranian officials at this month’s General Assembly

Lifeline or dead end? Iran turns East as West closes in

Lifeline or dead end? Iran turns East as West closes in

Tehran’s sharpening nuclear clash with the West and embrace of Beijing and Moscow have brought it to a crossroads, where choices this month may decide the future of Iran’s rulers and the ruled.

Iran's diplomatic feints come up short as economy flashes red

Iran's diplomatic feints come up short as economy flashes red

Tehran’s approach to diplomacy may be best summed up by a Persian phrase: refusing with one hand and accepting with the other. But does the moribund economy show that the equivocating strategy has finally run out of road?

Iran’s renewed push to bypass the dollar faces long odds

Iran’s renewed push to bypass the dollar faces long odds

Iran has once again floated the idea of replacing the US dollar with local currencies in trade with its partners, but so far the push has gone nowhere.

Tehran’s denial after wartime thrashing may deepen its peril

Tehran’s denial after wartime thrashing may deepen its peril

New lows once unthinkable in Iran—from assassinations of senior officials to the gutting of air defenses—have already been plumbed, yet Tehran’s rulers remain impervious to these new realities, inviting the prospect of an even harsher reckoning.

Bogus barrels: how Iran exploits Iraq’s name to move its oil

Bogus barrels: how Iran exploits Iraq’s name to move its oil

Iran is passing off its crude oil as Iraqi exports to evade US sanctions, according to new evidence that contradicts Baghdad’s denials.

Months in the making, sanctions snapback still stuns Iran's elite

Months in the making, sanctions snapback still stuns Iran's elite

A day after three European states triggered a UN mechanism that reimposes international sanctions on Iran, the move appeared to wrongfoot Tehran's establishment despite months of warnings.

Isolated allies: Iran turns to Belarus as sanctions leave few partners

Isolated allies: Iran turns to Belarus as sanctions leave few partners

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visited Belarus this week, a heavily sanctioned Russian ally, in a trip that highlighted how Tehran’s “Look East” strategy ties it more closely to Moscow and Beijing and their sanctioned partners.