Despite loans, discounted foreign currency and various other incentives, the number of Iranians willing to undertake the Arbaeen Shiite pilgrimage in Iraq is in decline.

The latest statistics from the 'Arbaeen Headquarters' indicate that only 1,335,000 individuals have applied for special passports for the religious ceremony, approximately one-third of the number of participants in the previous year. 

Arbaeen (literally meaning fortieth) is a Shiite religious observance that occurs forty days after the Day of Ashura, when according to religious legend Husayn (Hussain) ibn Ali, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad was killed on the 10th day of the month of Muharram in 680 AD.

The number of pilgrims will increase as there are about two weeks until the Arbaeen ceremony, which falls on September 6 this year, but even if the country keeps issuing passports with its maximum capacity, the number will end up significantly lower than previous years. 

Brig. Gen. Mohammad Sharafi, a police commander in charge of the Arbaeen Headquarters, said Tuesday, “We received approximately 1,335,000 applications for passports, and so far, 640,000 passports have been delivered. We are currently printing 100,000 passports daily after tripling our capacity.”

The Islamic Republic regime views the event as a show of influence in the region, encouraging high participation via numerous perks, including providing free medical services and rest stops along the way, free internet on the road and inside Iraq, offering interest-free loans and granting 200,000 Iraqi dinars ($153) to pilgrim as well as special passports with less bureaucratic requirements. The ration of cheap foreign currency – which used to be dollars or euros until this year – will be paid from Iran's frozen funds in Iraq, about to be released as part of a prisoner swap deal with the United States. 

Millions of Shiite Muslims travel to the Iraqi city of Karbala, the site of the Shiite Imam’s shrine for Arbaeen. A large number of the pilgrims start their journey from other religious cities – such as Najaf and Kadhimiya in Iraq -- and walk on foot for days – sometimes hundreds of kilometers -- to reach Karbala. There are no reliable methods for tallying the number of visitors to Iraqi holy Shia sites during Arbaeen. In 2019, before the pandemic, an estimated 15 million people from various countries attended the ceremonies.

The route from Najaf to Karbala is the most popular one and the Islamic Republic has set up dozens of stations providing free food and refreshments as well as rest areas on the way. 

Aref Norouzi, a senior official at the Execution of Imam Khomeini's Order’ (Setad), claims that the "largest and most well-equipped mobile hospital in the Middle East" will be established by the organization along the route from Najaf to Karbala. 

Despite reports of shortages of medicines and medical staff in a lot of regions across the country, the regime has dispatched 22,000 medical personnel and emergency responders for the event. At least seven field hospitals have been set up and two helicopter ambulances and more than 100 regular ambulances have been stationed just at the Khosravi border crossing, one of several main crossings between Iran and Iraq. 

More than 4,000 physicians, along with approximately 400 tons of medication and equipment, are prepared for Arbaeen pilgrims, Iran’s Red Crescent Society said. 

According to Iran’s Customs Administration, more than 30,500 tons of foodstuffs and 800,000 liters of gasoline are to be transferred to Iraq for Arbaeen. This comes as Iran is struggling to supply its daily needs of fuel that has led to long lines of cars at gas stations and a gasoline black market. Providing food is also among the grievances of Iranian households as the prices jumped in the past year. 

In addition to medical and healthcare personnel, municipal, road maintenance, and transportation workers have also been deployed, including only 4,000 Tehran municipality employees. 

Majid Mirahmadi, a deputy interior minister and the head of Iran's taskforce for Arbaeen pilgrimage, had predicted that this year more than four million Iranian pilgrims will travel to Iraq. The figure is a speculation based on the number of pilgrims in the previous years but this year the annual Shiite mourning ceremonies took an unprecedented anti-regime tone as people chanted religious verses that were critical of the regime and its repressive actions. 

Despite government efforts to mitigate economic and other challenges faced by pilgrims it appears that people are becoming more distant from the pilgrimage due to its association with the Islamic Republic and its policies.